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CAIR Impacts Arkansas’ Emissions

  • By 2015, CAIR will help Arkansas sources reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) during the ozone season by 5,000 tons or 26 percent from 2003 levels.
NOx Emissions (thousand tons) 2003 2009 2015
Arkansas NOx emissions without CAIR 19 20 20
Arkansas NOx emissions with CAIR N/A 14 14

CAIR Helps Arkansas and its Neighbors

  • Because air emissions travel across state boundaries, reducing the emissions from sources in Arkansas also will reduce ground-level ozone pollution in other areas of the country.
  • Currently, Arkansas sources do not significantly contribute to fine particle pollution in other states.
  • Arkansas sources significantly contribute to ground-level ozone pollution in:

CAIR Makes Arkansas’ Air Cleaner

  • CAIR helps Arkansas meet and maintain the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ground-level ozone and fine particle pollution.
  • SO2 and NOx contribute to the formation of fine particles (PM), and NOx contributes to the formation of ground-level ozone.
  • Areas meeting the NAAQS are in attainment. Those areas not meeting the standards are known as “nonattainment areas.”

    Fine Particle Pollution

    • At the end of 2004, no Arkansas counties were designated nonattainment for EPA’s health-based standards for fine particle pollution.

    Ground-level Ozone

    • At the end of 2004, one Arkansas county was designated nonattainment for EPA’s health-based standards for ground-level ozone pollution.
    • Existing Clean Air Act Programs will bring that county into attainment by 2010.
          1. Crittenden County Memphis, TN-AR Area

CAIR is Smart for Arkansas’ Economy

  • CAIR helps maintain coal as a viable fuel/energy source.
  • Regional electricity prices are not significantly impacted by CAIR, and are projected to be below 2000 levels.
Average Retail Electricity Prices (AREP) in 1999 dollars 2000 2010 2015
Arkansas’ AREP without CAIR (mills/kWh*) 59.3 56.2 55.1
Arkansas’ AREP with CAIR (mills/kWh*) N/A 57.0 56.2
    *mill = 1/10 of a cent

1) Partial counties are identified by (P) following the county name.
2) Projections concerning future levels of air pollution in specific geographic locations were estimated using the best scientific models available. They are estimations, however, and should be characterized as such in any description. Actual results may vary significantly if any of the factors that influence air quality differ from the assumed values used in the projections shown here.
3) Small emission increases can occur in a state under CAIR where shifts in power generation occur, but overall improvements occur throughout the CAIR region. The Final CAIR includes a compliance supplement pool of NOx allowances (roughly 200,000 allowances) for the annual program, which could lead to slightly higher annual NOx emissions than are stated here.
4) The data presented here is based on recently completed, revised Integrated Planning Modeling (IPM), reflecting CAIR as finalized. This recent data may differ slightly from modeling results in the Final CAIR Federal Register Notice and Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) which were based on modeling that was completed before EPA had determined the final scope of CAIR. The primary difference in the earlier modeling included AR, DE, and NJ in the annual SO2/NOx requirements, and did not include an ozone season cap on any states.
5) Emissions reductions take into account state and federal pollution control programs in place when EPA last updated its models in mid-2004. Reductions from more recent state programs or settlement actions are not reflected in these tables.
6) Retail electricity prices are by North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region.

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