NARSTO 1998 STATE-OF-SCIENCE ASSESSMENT

Ken Schere

U.S. EPA / ORD

Research Triangle Park, NC

FACA Subcommittee for Ozone, PM, and Regional Haze

Science and Technology Support Working Group

Dallas, TX

October 29, 1996

POLICY QUESTIONS - NARSTO 1998 ASSESSMENT

1. What changes have occurred in tropospheric ozone science over the last decade that might alter (or confirm) the course of current ozone air quality management strategies?

2. How manageable is the ozone problem for a given area? [What portion of the problem is local and what portion is transported in? What portion of the problem is essentially irreducible and what portion is potentially controllable?]

3. Are existing emissions control measures helping to bring the ozone problem under control? [For a given area, if these control measures are continued, will they lead to ozone attainment?]

4. What are the relationships between the on-going efforts to manage tropospheric ozone pollution and the scientific understanding of the issues?

5. What are alternate approaches for reducing current and future high ozone concentrations on urban (<200 km) and regional (200-2000 km) scales?

6. How can we best track and assess the progress and effectiveness of our ozone management efforts?

7. Will our efforts to manage ozone help or hinder efforts to mitigate other environmental problems, such as acid rain, fine particles, global climate change, and vice versa?

SCIENCE QUESTIONS - NARSTO 1998 ASSESSMENT

1. What are the most significant research developments in tropospheric ozone science over the last decade?

2. How does ozone accumulation on urban (<200 km) and regional (200-2000 km) scales depend on the source dimension and location? How does it depend on the relative contribution from urban and regional sources?

3. What are the most recent assessments of the relative contributions of VOCs, NOx, and CO to ozone accumulation on urban and regional scales in North America?

4. What are the strengths and limitations of the current scientific methods and tools in assessing tropospheric ozone issues and developing emissions management strategies?

5. What approaches are required to determine historic concentration trends of ozone and its precursors on urban and regional scales? What is required to demonstrate the effectiveness of emissions control strategies over time?

6. What are the relationships between the control strategies designed to manage tropospheric ozone and those designed to manage other pollutant regimes of interest?

1998 NARSTO Assessment - Critical Reviews and White Papers

NARSTO	Principal

Critical Review	Author(s)	Status

Air Quality Trends	S.T. Rao/G. Wolff	Firm - NY-DEC/

EPRI/GM

Sponsors

Methods Development	F. Fehsenfeld/W. Neff/	Firm - NOAA Sponsor

P. McMurry

Monitoring Networks	K. Demerjian	Firm - EPA Sponsor

Process Insights from	In Negotiation

Field Studies

Dry Deposition and	M. Wesely/B. Hicks	Firm - DOE/NOAA

Removal Processes	Sponsor

Atmospheric Chemistry	R. Atkinson	Firm - CA-ARB Sponsor

Chemical Kinetic	M. Dodge	Firm - CA-ARB Sponsor

Mechanisms

Aqueous Chemistry and	In Negotiation

Wet Removal Processes

Meteorological Processes	N. Seaman	Firm - CRC Sponsor

Air Quality Model	R. Dennis/T. Russell	Firm - EPA Sponsor

Development

Air Quality Applications	P. Roth/T. Tesche/	Firm - API Sponsor

J. Seinfeld

Mobile Source Emissions	W. Pierson	Firm - CRC Sponsor

Stationary Source	M. Placet	Firm - DOE Sponsor

Emissions

Natural Source Emissions	A. Guenther	Firm - NSF Sponsor

Field Study	G. Hidy/ P. Solomon/	In Negotiation - EPRI/

Intercomparisons	E. Cowling	SCS Sponsor

Risk Management for	G. Hester	Firm - EPRI Sponsor

Air Quality

1998 NARSTO Assessment - Synthesis Team

Constituency	Representative(s)	Status

Science - Government	Dan Albritton	Firm - NOAA Sponsor

Science - University	Bill Chameides	Firm - EPA Sponsor

Ken Demerjian	Firm - EPRI/ESSERCO

(Co-chairs)	Sponsor

Science - Private Sector	Phil Roth	Firm - DOE Sponsor

Stakeholder - State/Local	Praveen Amar	Firm - NESCAUM

Sponsor

Stakeholder - Industry	Howard Feldman	Firm - API Sponsor

Alan Hansen	Firm - EPRI Sponsor

George Wolff	Firm - GM Sponsor

Policy Making - U.S.	John Bachmann	Firm - EPA Sponsor

Policy Making - Canada	Carmelita Olivotto	Firm - Env. Canada

Sponsor

Policy Making - Mexico	Francisco Guzman	Firm - Instituto Mexicano

Petroleo Sponsor

NARSTO STATE-OF-SCIENCE ASSESSMENT

Schedule of Milestones

Critical Review Papers

December 31, 1996	Detailed outline of paper

June 30, 1997	First draft of paper available for review

(Annotated (paragraph) outline, at a minimum)

Reviewers:	2-3 internal NARSTO reviewers selected by NARSTO Science Team and Science & Resource Planning Group

Draft provided to Synthesis Team

August 15, 1997	Comments received from NARSTO reviewers

September 1, 1997	Last date for receipt of first drafts

Internal NARSTO Review for later-submitted drafts

November 1997	NARSTO Science Symposium

(Presentation of NARSTO Critical Reviews and White Papers)

December 31, 1997	Revised drafts, incorporating NARSTO reviewer comments, submitted for journal publication (Special issue of Atmospheric Environment)

Assessment Report (Synthesis Team)

January 1997	Synthesis Team Meeting

(Revisions to Policy/Science Questions for Assessment;

Briefings from national air quality policy specialists)

July 1997	Draft Critical Review papers become available to Synthesis Team

Summer 1997	Synthesis Team writing retreat

Fall 1997	Synthesis Team writing retreat

March 1, 1998	First draft of Assessment Report available for review

Reviewers:	2 internal NARSTO reviewers selected by NARSTO Science Team and Science & Resource Planning Group

Critical Review paper authors

April 15, 1998	NARSTO reviews received

May 30, 1998	Second draft of Assessment Report available for review, incorporating NARSTO reviewer comments

Reviewers:	Selected reviewers from the NARSTO Executive Assembly, Stakeholders Council, and Liaison Team

July 15, 1998	Comments received on second draft from NARSTO reviewers

September 1, 1998	Third draft of Assessment Report available for review,

incorporating NARSTO reviewer comments

Reviewers:	National Academy of Sciences (NAS) committee on NARSTO peer review

November 1, 1998	Comments received from NAS

December 31, 1998	Publication of Assessment Report