EPA is providing this resource to help states understand options for:

• Identifying their on-the-books energy efficiency and renewable energy policies and estimating the incremental electricity savings of these policies;
• Developing a methodology for projecting a jurisdiction’s energy demand both with and without the incremental electricity savings; and
• Estimating the change in power sector emissions attributable to the incremental electricity savings.

EPA developed this approach to supplement the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2013 forecast through 2030. While EPA and many states rely on this AEO demand forecast for power sector modeling and emissions planning, it does not include all state energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. For instance, the AEO 2013 forecast does not include high impact policies many states have adopted, such as Energy Efficiency Resource Standards, energy efficiency programs funded by public benefits funds, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative revenues and Forward Capacity Market revenues, as well as Renewable Portfolio Standards updates made after the AEO 2013 release.

In the analysis below EPA describes an approach states could use to include the projected energy and emissions impacts of key state policies not reflected in AEO 2013. It also includes EPA estimates of the national electricity impacts of state energy efficiency and renewable energy policies not included in EIA’s AEO 2013 forecast.

States and Tribes responsible for developing State or Tribal Implementation Plans (SIPs/TIPs) for ozone or other criteria air pollutant National Ambient Air Quality Standards could use this approach to account for the energy impacts of these key policies in their own electricity baseline projections.¹ Jurisdictions not currently preparing a SIP/TIP, but interested in better understanding the energy and emissions impacts of energy efficiency and renewable energy policies, can likewise use EPA’s approach to identify strategies for staying in attainment with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.

National Energy Impacts of Existing State EE/RE Policies

• Including state energy efficiency and renewable energy policies in electricity demand projections: This resource is intended for state and local air agencies preparing NAAQS SIPs. It summarizes how EPA incorporated state energy efficiency and renewable policies in electricity demand projections, and describes analytical steps states can take when preparing NAAQS SIPs.

¹ For further detail refer to EPA’s Roadmap for Incorporating EE/RE in State and Tribal Implementation Plans, Appendix E.